Should old acquaintance be forgot? As we sing Auld Lang Syne to 2023 this week, thoughts shift to 2024 and the events it will bring. However, no event may highlight the year more than the 2024 presidential election.
Politicians like to use the old and overused “this is the most important election of our lives” phrase, but after the events of the 2020 election and its aftermath, they might be right for once.
It’s an important year, and a lot could happen. For instance, will we end up with those same old acquaintances, Joe Biden and Donald Trump, or will we sing Auld Lang Syne to them as well? Here are 6 things to watch for as we head into the 2024 presidential election.
1. Can Nikki Haley overtake Donald Trump in the primaries?
(Update: She Didn’t. On March 6th she dropped out of the race.)
We’ll start with the Republican primaries because they kick off with the Iowa Caucuses on January 15th, followed by the New Hampshire primary on January 23rd.
These will officially begin the long stretch to November and the first real question of the 2024 presidential election year: will Nikki Haley or anyone else be able to overtake Donald Trump as the Republican nominee?
I specifically focus on Nikki Haley because she is rising in the polls and overtaking Ron DeSantis for second in many states, and she offers a stark contrast to Trump.
Since there are so many polls and they change so frequently, I’m just going give a general overview of how things stand in many polls as of this writing.
Haley trails DeSantis for second slightly in Iowa and has overtaken DeSantis for second in New Hampshire.
She is also second in South Carolina, where the primary will take place on February 24th. This may be the biggest test for her, as it is a crucial primary state and because she was the former governor.
As I said, this is just an overview of her polling, and of course, things can change, but she certainly is going in the right direction.
But does and will any of this matter?
Despite Haley’s rise, Donald Trump still holds a substantial lead and the Trump 2024 campaign continues to gain momentum.
Now, I’ve never been a poll guy. I feel they don’t tell the whole story because they obviously don’t poll everyone and are skewed towards whose poll it is. This is why I like to take a general overview and not go deep down the rabbit hole of polling.
But they give us an idea, and the idea is still Trump. And given this, Haley’s path comes down to this for me.
First, she needs to show well in Iowa. This means she needs to finish second. It’s certainly not over if she finishes a strong third, but second is important because it could bump DeSantis out of the race. He’s doing so poorly in New Hampshire and South Carolina that a third-place showing in Iowa may end his campaign, but that’s no certainty.
Second, she must win New Hampshire and South Carolina, which is possible. She has the support of New Hampshire governor Chris Sununu, and as mentioned, she was the governor of South Carolina, which is also her home state.
From there, she needs to have a big Super Tuesday, which is the day when most states hold their primary elections and caucuses.
Will any of this happen? We’ll see. But if it doesn’t, a fourth option may end up helping Haley and the other opponents.
2. Donald Trump’s Legal Issues and Their Impact
Despite everything I just said about Nikki Haley and the other Republican candidates, it all might be pointless. Not because Donald Trump is the clear frontrunner but because he may be legally taken out of the race.
Here are Donald’s legal issues and when they could have an impact.
First is the 2020 election interference case, where he is charged with participating in a scheme to interfere with the peaceful transfer of power. Accusations accuse Trump of spreading lies about voter fraud and that he won the election, which led to the January 6th attack on the capital. The trial is set for March 4th, 2024, as of now.
Second is the classified documents case, where he is accused of keeping classified documents after his presidential term was over and a scheme to conceal the fact that he had them. The trial is set for May 2024.
Third is the 2020 election interference case in Georgia, where he is accused of trying to stop the certification of Georgia’s 2020 election results. Evidence of this comes from a phone call between Trump and Georgia’s secretary of state in which Trump asked him to find 11,780 votes. As of this writing, the proposed trial date is August 5th, 2024.
Fourth is the New York hush-money case. It is said that Trump had his former lawyer, Michael Cohen, give payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels in 2016. This was to keep her quiet about an affair she had with Trump. However, Trump is accused of trying to show that those payments were legal expenses paid to Cohen instead. The trial is set for March 25th, 2024.
Finally, Donald Trump is being removed from the ballot in Colorado and potentially in other states. Colorado removed Trump from the ballot, citing the insurrection clause in the U.S. Constitution. Michigan recently tried to do the same, but the Michigan Supreme Court said Trump can remain on the ballot. Other states will probably try for this as well. Trump’s team wants to take it to the Supreme Court immediately, which could strike down the Colorado ruling and stop other states from doing the same.
All these could lead to many outcomes: Trump being put in jail, Trump being disqualified from running for president, Trump being taken off many ballots, Trump being acquitted in all or some cases, or everything being delayed.
If Trump is the Republican nominee, it will be a crazy ride.
3. Joe Biden’s Campaign and Hunter Biden’s Issues
Shifting to the Democrats is the question of President Joe Biden and his reelection campaign. Some people even question whether he will run at all, but at this point, unless something drastic happens, he seems to be the Democratic nominee.
If something does happen or change, it would most likely fall to Vice President Kamala Harris or California Governor Gavin Newsom to be the nominee, but that’s just speculation as of now.
However, assuming that the likely thing happens and Biden is the nominee, his campaign raises some questions.
Like what are his strategies for Trump and someone else?
For Trump, it’s pretty straightforward. Biden will probably focus on topics like saving democracy and Trump’s legal issues. But what about someone else?
A lot of polls have Biden leading Trump, and the ones that don’t have it basically tied or very close. However, Biden is doing poorly in polls versus someone moderate like Nikki Haley.
Many, myself included, think Nikki Haley has a much better shot against Biden, and some believe she could coast to a victory in the general election.
Biden also needs to address his accomplishments and the country’s current state. While Biden has many accomplishments, and the economy is improving on paper, with inflation going down and no recession, many people in the country just don’t feel it.
Prices are still high for things like groceries and accomplishments like the CHIPS Act, which improves our semiconductor manufacturing, don’t register over that.
While Biden does need to get out the word about his accomplishments, he also needs to show that these issues, like food prices, will be and are being addressed. It will be important to see how or if the campaign does this.
Finally, there is the issue of Hunter Biden. While I talked in detail about Hunter Biden in my last article, Political Privilege, for our purposes, it is about how it will affect the 2024 election.
Will the investigation and impeachment inquiry lead to anything that hurts Joe Biden directly? If not, will Hunter’s issues hurt Joe Biden’s campaign anyway? And what will become of Hunter himself because of everything?
4. What Issues will most impact the 2024 election?
While there are always personal attacks in Presidential elections, most elections can come down to the issues. This year is different with Donald Trump’s legal matters and Hunter Biden’s problems, but the issues won’t be less impactful.
Abortion will be front and center. Many, including me, attribute the lack of a red wave in the 2022 midterms to abortion.
States like Ohio, which passed an amendment that allows access to abortion this past November, and Kansas, which voted down a proposed amendment to their constitution enabling the legislature to ban or limit abortion in August 2022, are states that Donald Trump won in both 2016 and 2020.
Abortion could be enough to swing potential states like Ohio, which Obama also won twice, and energize a Democratic base that is less than enthused about Biden.
Then there’s immigration, which Republicans will and should focus on as problems at the border mount. Many on both sides are concerned about the border, and how Biden plans to address the border differently in his second term may swing voters.
The Wars in Israel and Ukraine will be in focus too. How they play out could impact the United States’ role, and Joe Biden’s decisions will be on the radar.
And I haven’t even mentioned the economy yet!
While they certainly aren’t the only issues that will come into play, these and how they evolve throughout the year should play an essential role.
5. Will there be a strong Third-Party Candidate?
While we know there will be a Libertarian candidate and Green Party candidate like there are every year, this year could bring a new type of third-party candidate that could be a factor in a way we haven’t seen since Ross Perot in the 1990s.
Ross Perot was a businessman who ran as an Independent in 1992, and as a third-party candidate in 1996 for the Reform Party he founded.
Perot’s performances in the 1992 and 1996 elections were strong for an independent and third-party candidate, as he carried over 18 percent of the vote in 1992 and over 8 percent in 1996. No independent or third-party candidate has come close to that since.
But will the 2024 presidential election change that?
The potential exists as people are increasingly dissatisfied with a potential Joe Biden-Donald Trump rematch.
No Labels, a bipartisan political organization, may put forward a third-party candidate. If they do, they may put forward what they call a unity ticket. The unity ticket would have a Democrat and a Republican as running mates.
Joe Manchin, the Democratic U.S. senator from West Virginia, is speculated to be a potential candidate No Labels would put forward. Others like Larry Hogan, the former Republican governor of Maryland, have also been mentioned.
The No Labels candidate and any third-party candidate or independent will also have to go through the process of actually getting on the ballot. This is a challenge, and it will be interesting to see if they can.
As an independent, I am very curious about the concept of a third-party candidate and will delve into this more in the future.
But the main things to note are whether the third-party candidate has a chance to win and if they will take votes from either Biden or Trump in the general election.
Because of the latter, the concept of a third-party candidate could have the most significant impact in the 2024 presidential election.
6. Will there be Chaos?
First, Donald Trump will probably not accept a loss…. again. This means there will be some form of chaos at some level.
It could be in the Republican primary if Nikki Haley does defeat Trump. In this case, Trump will probably say the Republican establishment rigged the primary or that Nikki Haley herself cheated, just like he said Ted Cruz cheated in the 2016 Iowa caucus.
Trump’s legal battles could cause this, as mentioned above. If they don’t go his way, he could say the Biden team is weaponizing the justice department and the justice system. There is also the question, if Trump does end up in jail for one of the legal issues, of whether he will he be able to run for president?
2020 could repeat. If Biden defeats Trump in the general election, the Trump 2024 campaign could once again say Biden cheated, and here we go again.
As mentioned above, a third-party candidate could play a significant role and upset the balance of the parties, causing a problem for either Biden or Trump.
On the other end of the spectrum, Trump could win the election. This would send the Democrats reeling and cause concern about what a Trump second term would bring.
Finally, there is the concern of voter fraud and cheating left over from the 2020 election. We saw this in the 2022 midterms and in situations like the Arizona gubernatorial election, where Kari Lake lost the election and claimed the election was stolen.
Will cheating concerns be addressed leading up to the election? I don’t see any concern from Republicans going into the Republican primary about needing to address it. This leaves the Trump options above wide open.
As I talked of in my article, Cheater, Cheater, Pumpkin Eater, both sides need to address the issue of cheating and potential voter fraud before an election, not just complain about it afterward.
But you can’t use it as an excuse if you address it before, so it probably won’t get addressed.
Despite all of this, it doesn’t have to be all chaos. The path of least chaos may come down to us as voters and constituents.
I mentioned Kari Lake and the Arizona gubernatorial election. While she claimed the election was stolen and caused a little stir regionally, the country was not up in arms.
The country, in general, seems to be growing tired of cheating accusations without credible and sufficient evidence, and the 2022 midterms relayed this a bit.
As I said, these cheating issues need to be addressed now, so there is no excuse. However, the public may intuitively say enough is enough and follow the 2022 midterm route even if they aren’t.
If Nikki Haley wins the primary and Trump calls cheating again, the Republican constituent base could follow this path. This would be the path of least chaos, and a normal general election could occur between Biden and Haley.
But we will have to watch and see. Many options are on the table, not just for this topic but for the entire 2024 election.
Needless to say, it will be an interesting year to watch.
